Delphi Method of Expert Evaluation
Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:12 am
The Delphi method of expert assessments is one of the effective tools for analyzing decisions in any processes. Also, this method has found active application not only in professional spheres of activity, but also for solving difficult situations in personal life.
The essence of the Delphi method is that when solving a problem, the opinions of a certain group of people are taken into account, which are subsequently combined into positions and conclusions. Then the results are carefully analyzed, and the optimal solution is found.
Key Features of the Delphi Method
The advantages of this method of expert assessments are multi-level, anonymity and remoteness. It is supposed to generalize the results of surveys of all experts on the problem under study to obtain the most reliable general opinion. Various tools are used to implement the process of data generalization, the most common of which are surveys, interviews and brainstorming.
The essence of the Delphi method chinese overseas america data package of expert assessments is that the group of experts that is in no way connected and not interested in the problem under study will be able to assess the situation more objectively than the interested group. In this case, the influence of the human factor associated with joint activities and interest in a particular result is completely excluded. During the survey, participants can be anywhere, this is of no fundamental importance.
This method of expert assessment is only used if there are two groups, one of which consists of experts and the other of analysts.
Stages of the Delphi Method
There are three stages of the Delphi method: preliminary, main and analytical:
During the preliminary stage, a group of experts is formed, the number of which is not limited in any way. However, it should be borne in mind that the developers of the method initially recommended an optimal group size of 20 people.
At the main stage, the experts are told the problem and given a task. The respondents, in turn, break it down into several subtasks, which are processed by analysts. As a result, a list of frequently asked questions is formed. It is sent to the expert group, which makes its own additions if necessary, after which the analysts develop a new questionnaire and again give it to the experts for verification.
Now the group of experts must determine the least popular questions, as well as provide answers to the questions already received. Analysts compile frequently encountered answers and combine them into groups. This happens several times, as a result of which the expert group comes to a single decision. In this case, even a minor detail will not escape the attention of the participants. The stage ends with the compilation of a list of recommendations for the task under study.
Delphi Method of Expert Evaluation
Source: shutterstock.com
During the analytical stage, the agreement of the opinions of the expert group members is checked, the possibility of risks is assessed, the conclusions are analyzed, and then a final list of recommendations is developed. This method can be used with some modification of its structure. This is practiced in cases where the problem cannot be presented in the form of a questionnaire.
It is possible to conduct an express study using this method. In this case, the duration of the discussion of the problem does not exceed several hours and requires the availability of special software.
The express approach to the Delphi method has its opponents, whose main argument is the assertion that in a limited period it is impossible to fully and comprehensively study the task at hand, as well as to assess the consequences of the proposed solutions and the points of view of experts.
The essence of the Delphi method is that when solving a problem, the opinions of a certain group of people are taken into account, which are subsequently combined into positions and conclusions. Then the results are carefully analyzed, and the optimal solution is found.
Key Features of the Delphi Method
The advantages of this method of expert assessments are multi-level, anonymity and remoteness. It is supposed to generalize the results of surveys of all experts on the problem under study to obtain the most reliable general opinion. Various tools are used to implement the process of data generalization, the most common of which are surveys, interviews and brainstorming.
The essence of the Delphi method chinese overseas america data package of expert assessments is that the group of experts that is in no way connected and not interested in the problem under study will be able to assess the situation more objectively than the interested group. In this case, the influence of the human factor associated with joint activities and interest in a particular result is completely excluded. During the survey, participants can be anywhere, this is of no fundamental importance.
This method of expert assessment is only used if there are two groups, one of which consists of experts and the other of analysts.
Stages of the Delphi Method
There are three stages of the Delphi method: preliminary, main and analytical:
During the preliminary stage, a group of experts is formed, the number of which is not limited in any way. However, it should be borne in mind that the developers of the method initially recommended an optimal group size of 20 people.
At the main stage, the experts are told the problem and given a task. The respondents, in turn, break it down into several subtasks, which are processed by analysts. As a result, a list of frequently asked questions is formed. It is sent to the expert group, which makes its own additions if necessary, after which the analysts develop a new questionnaire and again give it to the experts for verification.
Now the group of experts must determine the least popular questions, as well as provide answers to the questions already received. Analysts compile frequently encountered answers and combine them into groups. This happens several times, as a result of which the expert group comes to a single decision. In this case, even a minor detail will not escape the attention of the participants. The stage ends with the compilation of a list of recommendations for the task under study.
Delphi Method of Expert Evaluation
Source: shutterstock.com
During the analytical stage, the agreement of the opinions of the expert group members is checked, the possibility of risks is assessed, the conclusions are analyzed, and then a final list of recommendations is developed. This method can be used with some modification of its structure. This is practiced in cases where the problem cannot be presented in the form of a questionnaire.
It is possible to conduct an express study using this method. In this case, the duration of the discussion of the problem does not exceed several hours and requires the availability of special software.
The express approach to the Delphi method has its opponents, whose main argument is the assertion that in a limited period it is impossible to fully and comprehensively study the task at hand, as well as to assess the consequences of the proposed solutions and the points of view of experts.